‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy transports through the vital shipping lane, availability of cooking gas are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.

"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply isn't available," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the south. People are adopting coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a financial hub, media reports say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers report a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the authorities insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and spokespersons say cylinders are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being reserved for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been sparked by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on vessel tracking and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.