Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Fall Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures
The typical number of everyday killings monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government statistics. But, security specialists have advised that murder numbers might not indicate improved national stability.
Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures
There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President took the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the head of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.
“The figures in murders that have been recorded during these past months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that the previous month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.
Recent Context and Official Strategy
Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's highly militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.
That meant Mexico a murder figure more than 4x greater than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly sharper drop in homicides this year.
At a news briefing in August, the head of state said: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it daily.”
The main elements of the President's safety strategy involve:
- Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
- Improving information gathering and investigative work.
- Greater coordination between various authorities.
Analyst Caution and Data Limitations
But, security experts cautioned that relying on murder data to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the increase in other crimes such as forced disappearances.
“This would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”
Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.
“Data on murders is not reliable for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the desire to properly identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”
Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was also problematic because it may obscure days when there were especially elevated levels of murders.
“Using the daily average renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he stated.
Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress
An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.
“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.
Persistent Unrest and Public Anger
Yet despite these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with high violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.
A short time after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their outrage at graft and cartel violence.
“The administration frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” the analyst said.