Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.