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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a strong approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "serious consequences" during the summer should Russia's president carried on obstructing truce talks, he finally imposed major sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision substantially hindered Putin's capacity to support his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, which was created by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or European input, Trump has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Aggression

This plan would effectively favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite ringing proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative actually undermine that essential independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business past, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, implying ceding Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the leader. However, Russia's military campaign is not only about controlling a damaged region of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear desire to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the responsible governance that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While maintaining in position the currently separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would force the nation to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unable to occupy in over a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defensive positions severely compromised.

The area is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that are a essential obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, leaving Putin a open way to Kyiv in case he subsequently opt to restart the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a action that would enable renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, the plan would require the nation to diminish the size of its troops from their present large number troops to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, the initiative sets no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected government as extremists, the plan declares: "All Nazi doctrine and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal imposes no requirement that Putin risk his dictatorship by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated comparable agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's borders in return for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of captured areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external security guarantees. While the plan threatens a "immediate joint armed reaction" in case Russia renew its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars range from fuzzy to troubling. The plan would not only deny Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the reassurance force, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from rebuilding his weakened troops, rearming, and attacking again.

World Concern

A separate supplementary accord apparently would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. Yet unlike a powerful national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against future Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to respond with force to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not